Executive Summary

Q3 2026 primary materials (8‑K 2.02 earnings release, earnings call transcript, and contemporaneous press releases) were not available via company document search; we therefore anchored the preview on Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) and the latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) to frame trajectory and expectations .
Street for Q3 2026 looks for EPS $0.19*, revenue ~$227.23M*, EBITDA ~$46.49M* (small estimate counts), implying modest growth vs Q3 2025 actuals and margin resilience amid segment mix headwinds [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
The most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) delivered revenue $219.3M (-4.7% y/y), adjusted EBITDA $43.6M (+1.2% y/y, 19.9% margin), adjusted EPS $0.16; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.11. Management lowered FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance, which drove a sharp stock selloff (-28.15% intraday and -9.04% pre‑market) .
Key swing factors heading into Q3 2026: segment mix (International growth but lower margin), timing delays at TMC (~$11M push), stable steel costs, and cost initiatives ($10–$12M), with backlog/pipeline described as “stable” in Q3 2025 commentary .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

International segment strength and margin resilience: Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose to $43.6M (+1.2% y/y) with 19.9% margin despite revenue decline, aided by mix and execution .
Noke Smart Entry adoption acceleration: 439,000 units installed (+35.9% y/y), supporting recurring tech-led revenue and ecosystem penetration .
Liquidity and leverage solid: total liquidity $256.2M (cash $178.9M) and net leverage 2.3x, providing flexibility for buybacks and investment .

Management quotes:

“The biggest factor was product mix and segment mix, particularly with international sales being up… tariffs and input costs were not material factors.” — Anselm Wong, CFO .

Top-line softness and Commercial channel weakness: Q3 2025 revenue fell 4.7% y/y to $219.3M; Commercial & Other declined 20.1% y/y on project timing and market weakness .
Guidance cut hit sentiment: FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered, driving a severe negative stock reaction (-28.15% regular; -9.04% pre‑market) .
TMC program timing created ~$11M revenue push from Q3 to Q4/2026, adding near-term visibility uncertainty .

Note: Q3 2026 actuals unavailable; we show Street consensus for Q3 2026 and latest reported actuals for Q1–Q3 2025.

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2026 (Consensus)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$210.5	$228.1	$219.3	$227.23*
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $USD)	$0.08	$0.15	$0.11	$0.19*
Adjusted EPS ($USD)	$0.13	$0.20	$0.16	N/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$38.4	$49.0	$43.6	$46.49*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	18.2%	21.5%	19.9%	N/A

Values retrieved from S&P Global (*).

Segment breakdown (latest reported Q3 2025):

Segment / Channel	Q3 2025 Detail
Self‑Storage (share of revenue)	70.5% of total; New Construction +5.5% y/y; R3 +0.7% y/y
International	$28.3M revenue; +32.9% y/y
Commercial & Other	-20.1% y/y

KPIs (latest reported Q3 2025):

KPI	Q3 2025
Noke Smart Entry units installed	439,000 (+35.9% y/y)
Total liquidity	$256.2M
Cash & equivalents	$178.9M
Net leverage	2.3x
Cash from operations	$15.0M
Free cash flow	$8.3M
Share repurchase	~82,000 shares for ~$0.8M

Note: Latest available is FY2025 guidance (communicated with Q3 2025).

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD)	FY 2025	Not disclosed in sources found	$870M–$880M	Maintained vs prior narrative; numeric prior not available
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)	FY 2025	Not disclosed in sources found	$164M–$170M	Lowered (qualitative)
Other guidance (OpEx, tax, etc.)	FY 2025	N/A	N/A	N/A

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Segment mix/margins	Reaffirmed FY25; focus on productivity and margin initiatives	Margin expansion to 21.5%; reaffirmed FY25	Mix-driven margin dynamics; International growth lowers consolidated margin; tariffs not material	Stable to slightly negative due to mix
TMC timing impact	Not highlighted	Not highlighted	~$11M revenue push from Q3 into Q4/2026	Negative near-term timing
Backlog/pipeline	Stable commentary on demand	Reaffirmed outlook	Backlog/pipeline “stable,” no major change vs prior quarter	Stable
Steel/input costs	Not highlighted	Not highlighted	Steel prices stable; steel secured for next year	Neutral
Cost initiatives	Ongoing productivity focus	Efficiency and buybacks	$10–$12M initiatives underway	Positive medium-term

“The biggest factor was product mix and segment mix, particularly with international sales being up… tariffs and input costs were not material factors.” — Anselm Wong, CFO .
“There’s definitely a push into Q4 and subsequently into 2026.” — Ramey Jackson, CEO, on TMC timing (~$11M impact) .
“Backlog and pipeline appear stable, with no significant changes from last quarter.” — Anselm Wong, CFO .
“Steel prices have been stable, and we have already secured steel for next year.” — Anselm Wong, CFO .

UBS probed TMC timing/impact; management confirmed ~$11M shifted, with execution constraints pushing revenue into Q4 and 2026 .
Backlog/quoting from core customers: management reiterated stability vs prior quarter across New Construction and R3 .
Cost environment: steel cost stability and procurement visibility into next year, reducing near-term pricing risk .

Q3 2026 consensus: EPS $0.19*, revenue ~$227.23M*, EBITDA ~$46.49M*; EPS estimates count: 2; revenue estimates count: 3 [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
Implication: modest sequential improvement vs Q3 2025 actuals and EBITDA margin maintenance, contingent on mix (International vs North America), TMC execution timing, and stable input costs.

Mix is the key swing factor: International growth is dilutive to margin; watch North America Self‑Storage mix to gauge consolidated margin trajectory .
TMC timing creates quarterly volatility; monitor project schedules and conversion into revenue through Q4 and early 2026 .
Cost backdrop benign: steel secured/stable reduces near-term margin risk; focus shifts to execution and pricing discipline .
Liquidity and leverage provide buffer for cycles and selective capital allocation (buybacks), supporting downside protection .
Near-term trading: sentiment remains sensitive to guidance changes; prior negative reaction to guidance cut suggests asymmetric risk around forward commentary and EBITDA range updates .
Medium-term thesis: tech attach (Noke), R3 resiliency, and cost initiatives underpin earnings durability; watch for stabilization in Commercial channel and sustained self‑storage demand .
Pre‑earnings positioning for Q3 2026: consensus embeds modest improvement; potential beat/miss likely driven by TMC timing resolution and segment mix; monitor management tone on backlog and FY/next‑year outlook [Values retrieved from S&P Global].

Notes on data availability and process:

We attempted to list and search company documents (8‑K 2.02, earnings call transcript, press releases) for Q3 2026 and found none; therefore we used the latest available (Q3 2025) filings/press releases and third‑party transcript replicas, and S&P Global consensus for Q3 2026 .